How is Weather Predicted in Nature
Predicting the Weather without Technology
Reading Time: 4 minutes
How is weather predicted in nature? Learn how to read weather signs when making weather predictions about temperatures, seasons, and rainfall.
by Mark M. Hall
Meteorology is an all-important field of study that’s been revolutionized completely. Thanks to the integration of big data analytics with other emerging technologies, users have access to weather forecasts that are updated with amazing precision. Further advances in technology are expected in the future, and the reliability of these forecasts will only increase.
For many, the availability of accurate weather forecasts is crucial, and perhaps no one is dependent on them more than us homesteaders. Plans for each day are based largely upon the weather. “Can I plant my crop today?” “Should the barn roof be replaced this week or next?” “If I cut hay today, will it have enough time to dry before I bale it?”
Without a doubt, next-generation weather forecasting is extremely beneficial, but what would we do if we ever found ourselves apart from this luxury? If we were stranded somewhere, separated from all electronic devices (actually, that sounds a bit tempting) and from all other forms of communication, would we know if bad weather is headed our way?
How to Read Weather Signs in the Sky
Yes, we could predict the likely onset of foul weather. In fact, mankind has been doing so for at least 2,000 years. For ages, ships were guided by the old adage, “Red sky at night, sailor’s delight. Red sky at morning, sailors take warning!” Even in Biblical times, it was known that a red sunset sky foreshadows clear weather and that a red sunrise predicts bad weather.
When the sky is red at sunset or sunrise, light is scattered by a high concentration of atmospheric dust and dirt as it travels through long, red wavelengths of radiation. The downward force of air from a high pressure system creates this large concentration of aerosols. It also suppresses the formation of clouds, which bring precipitation.
Therefore, high pressure systems are associated with good weather and low pressure systems are associated with bad weather. So then, if the western sky is red at sunset, a high pressure system is near (since weather patterns generally move from west to east). The “delight” of fair weather is on the way! On the other hand, if the eastern sky is red at sunrise, a high pressure system is moving away, allowing a low pressure system to move in right behind it. “Take warning!” foul weather is coming!
(Disclaimer: This ancient weather warning is not intended for use within 30 degrees of either side of the equator. There the principle is reversed since easterly trade winds drive pressure systems in the opposite direction.)
There are other phenomena in the sky that we can use to decipher the threat of bad weather. One of them is the halo that occasionally appears around the moon on a clear night. Interestingly, this hazy circle is a refraction of moonlight through the ice crystals that make up cirrus clouds. Since it isn’t unusual for low pressure systems to follow these high, thin clouds, precipitation may well be in the offing.
Making Weather Predictions: Plant and Animal Indicators
There are weather prediction indicators not only in the sky but also within the Plant Kingdom. Pine cones grow and disperse seeds. When the air turns humid, the cones close their scales to protect them. This informs us that rain is coming. Conversely, we can also know that when the scales open, the weather will be dry.
We can even look to animals for weather clues. When rain is on the way, cattle are often found lying down. This oddity may occur because of the cooler temperatures that may come along with the rain. When cattle are overheated, they tend to stand.
Some insects perform weather forecasting as well. Crickets have a unique ability to inform us of changes in air temperature. Slower chirping indicates a decrease in temperature, while faster chirping points out an increase. To find the approximate temperature, in Fahrenheit, just add 40 to the number of cricket chirps heard within 15 seconds.
Finally, as many readers will emphatically agree, we humans can predict weather, too. Some pains in the bones or joints can foretell the arrival of rain. A conclusion reached from a study published by the National Center for Biotechnology Information helps to support this claim. It found that “weather factors in general were significantly associated with osteoarthritis pain.” When air pressure from an impending storm system lowers, tissues in the body expand, thereby agitating sensitive nerve endings.
I’ve presented many ways to effectively predict changes in weather without the use of technology. Now, try one of these old aphorisms, which people used long ago to predict weather. “If there is thunder in winter, it will snow seven days later.” No? How about this one? ”When you see a beaver carrying sticks in its mouth, it will be a hard winter — you better go south.” Try one more? “For every fog in August, there will be a snowfall in winter.” Now, before you laugh too hard, recognize that our knowledge is far from complete and that the human experience is widely varied. Therefore, I predict that there will always be a 100 percent chance of disagreement and a flood of differing opinions, and that’s okay.
Resources
- Augustine, J., and Smith, L. Red sky in the morning, sailor take warning, red sky at night, sailor’s delight.
- Editors of EarthSky. (2023). What makes a halo around the sun or moon?
- Natural Resources Trust of Easton. (2020). Pine cones and precipitation!
- Science Reference Section, Library of Congress. (2024). Can you tell the temperature by listening to the chirping of a cricket?
- New King James Version Bible. (1982).
- Thomas Nelson. (2023). Next-Gen Meteorology: The technological revolution in weather models.
- Wang, L., Xu, Q., Chen, Y., Zhu, Z., and Cao, Y. (2023). Associations between weather conditions and osteoarthritis pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Annals of Medicine. 55(1).
Mark M. Hall lives with his wife, their three daughters, and numerous pets on a four-acre slice of paradise in rural Ohio. Mark is a veteran small-scale chicken farmer and an avid observer of nature. As a freelance writer, he endeavors to share his life experiences in a manner that is both informative and entertaining.
Originally published in the January/February 2025 issue of Countryside and Small Stock Journal and regularly vetted for accuracy.
